Cigarette brand loyalty and purchase patterns: An examination using US consumer panel data ¬リニ

a r t i c l e i n f o This study analyzes data on cigarette purchasing using an extensive panel dataset. Major findings are: (1) cigarette purchasing in this market exhibits a reverse-J, or NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution)-like shape: many infrequent buyers and fewer frequent buyers; (2) Cigarette brands do exhibit high loyalty compared to other consumer categories, and show a trend to higher brand loyalty over time coinciding with fewer price promotions ; (3) The data shows a weak double jeopardy pattern of smaller brands enjoying somewhat lower loyalty; (4) Smokers of a given brand are on average more likely to purchase another large cigarette brand than another small brand; (5) A straightforward analysis method identifies occurrences of excessive cross-brand cannibaliza-tion in the portfolio of one of the major tobacco corporations; and (6) Certain brands enjoy particular appeal among specific demographic groups. The study sheds more light on consumer behavior towards a product with addictive qualities and known harmful effects. Tobacco use is reported to be the leading, or one of the leading, public health concerns in many countries (e.g., Haddock, Talcott, Klesges, & Lando, 1999). There is overwhelming evidence that smoking leads to numerous manifestations of ill health including, but not limited to-lung cancer, chronic bronchitis and emphysema, slower recovery from illness or surgery, stroke, numerous other cancers, and death (Chaloupka & Warner, 2000). In the United States, for example, smoking is attributed to the premature deaths of over 400,000 people annually (CDC, 2011). As a consequence of the adverse health effects of smoking, there is an intense interest in the behavior of smokers by researchers in multiple disciplines , because understanding such behavior is a basis for changing it to induce positive health outcomes. Many large-scale surveys are conducted to gain insights into the consumption and cessation behavior of smokers. Examples range from a tobacco use supplement to the US census (Bureau of the Census, 2003), to extensive longitudinal studies examining quitting (Royce, Corbett, Sorensen, & Ockene, 1997). Other studies investigate the impact of advertising and other marketing variables on cigarette demand. Primary demand for cigarettes is price in-elastic, with a meta-analysis finding an average price elasticity of −0.42; and an average advertising elasticity of 0.08 (Gallet & List, 2003 p. 825). Less is known about in-market brand performance metrics such as repeat-purchase brand loyalty and cross-brand purchasing. Additional insights about smoker purchase behavior and …